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The Bernanke Era
Introduction The King is going. Long live the King. We now know that Ben Bernanke will be the next Fed Chairman. His approval by the Senate is as close to a lock as you can get. This week we focus on...
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Forecast 2006: On the Gripping Hand
Introduction Once again it's time for me to demonstrate the foolhardy part of my nature by putting to electronic pen my forecast for 2006. I spend more research time on this one letter than on any four...
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The Sacrifice Ratio
Introduction This week we will look at a few very interesting items that did not make it into last week's forecast, as that letter was already overly long. Bernanke's arrival, the importance of the...
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Economic Whiplash
Introduction The Fed elected to pause in its rate hiking assault on inflation this week. With the backward looking data pointing to higher inflation that must mean they expect the economy to slow down...
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The Inflation of Expectations
Introduction This week we had two more Federal Reserve members repeat what has become the theme for their chorus, but not one the market seems to be paying much attention to. It should be. The market...
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Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates?
Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? The Shocker in the Employment Numbers Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? Will A Cut Make Any Difference? How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy...
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Sea Change at the Fed
Sea Change at the Fed "Of his bones are coral made: Those are pearls that were his eyes: Nothing of him that doth fade, But doth suffer a sea change Into something rich and strange" (The Tempest -...
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Stagflation and the Fed
How Do You Spell Stagflation? Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation? The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark...
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Betting on Financial Armageddon
Pricing in Financial ArmageddonInside a RMBSRatings to Collateral to Ratings: A Vicious CycleThis Too Shall PassSouth Africa, Boulder and Stand Up to CancerMy Dad used to tell me there is no accounting...
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Leverage Is an 8 Letter Word
Leverage Is an 8 Letter WordIf Loans Are So Cheap, Why Don't They Sell?Deflation and Helicopters: Time for a ReviewCommercial Property Loans Start to Haunt the BanksWarren Makes a BetThanksgiving,...
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I Meant to Do That
I Meant to Do ThatThe Lights of MyanmarSome Good News for BorrowersMadoff May Give Us a Sell-OffConversations with John MauldinNew Orleans, La Jolla, and Merry ChristmasThe Fed has taken interest rates...
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The Risk of Recession
The Risk of Recession The Leading Indicators Are Starting to Turn Terms of Trade and US Real GDP Bernanke at the Crossroads Vancouver, Maine, and San FranciscoWe are halfway through the year (where did...
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Thoughts on Liquidity Traps
A Few Thoughts on the Employment NumbersBernanke Leaps into a Liquidity TrapHow to Spot a Liquidity TrapToy BlocksLondon, The End Game, and ChangesI am in London finishing my new book, The End Game,...
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